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Sometimes the mathematics work against you. Sometimes the odds are all wrong. It can be less simple than it appears.
One of the real foundations of my work as a cop is Occam’s Razor.
  All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best.


See also, ‘looks like a duck, quacks like a duck…’
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Sometimes, only rarely, but sometimes it is much, much more complex.
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It can create a kind of crisis. I mean to say that I am actually experiencing somewhat of a crisis, an existential crisis, as an investigator. This is what I do. It is my endeavor. I have dedicated myself to it and you may mock me for it but it is a serious thing to me. I have never believed that I am entirely equal to the task, but have always felt that I was at least no worse than most and better than some at it. 
I have approached it with care.
I strive to make the case. I put them down. I do it right and I put them down and they stay down when I do them.
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But from time to time a certain set of facts arise that test the entire structure. 
Which facts I am not able to articulate.
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It is not easy to make a place for doubt. For contradiction, for a kind of large-scale quantum fuzziness in the day to day workings of the world.
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But there are times when this becomes a necessary thing.
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